Eli Lilly stock will surge 29% over the next year with its weight-loss drug on pace to do $60 billion in sales by 2030, BofA says


eli lilly drugmaker

The logo of Lilly is seen on a wall of the Lilly France company unit, part of the Eli Lilly and Co drugmaker group, in Fegersheim near Strasbourg, France, February 1, 2018. Picture taken February 1, 2018.Vincent Kessler / Reuters

  • Eli Lilly received a street-high $1,000 price target from Bank of America on Friday, marking 29% upside from current levels.

  • The bank said Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 weight loss drug could top $60 billion in sales by 2030.

  • “We’d argue that additional opportunities in heart disease, obstructive sleep apnea, and liver disease are vastly underappreciated,” BofA said.


Shares of Eli Lilly could surge another 29% from current levels as its GLP-1 weight loss drug sees a sales boom, according to Bank of America.

The bank reiterated its “Buy” rating and increased its price target to $1,000 from $800, which represents the highest price target on Wall Street.

“While investors clearly recognize the commercial opportunity for Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity), we’d argue that additional opportunities in heart disease, obstructive sleep apnea, and liver disease are vastly underappreciated,” Bank of America analyst Geoff Meacham said in a Friday note.

The bank expects sales of Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 drugs to see continued strength for years to come, with the potential for sales to top $60 billion by 2030. For perspective, Eli Lilly generated $34 billion in revenue last year.

The drug company has experienced a swift uptake in sales for its GLP-1 drug, which helps patients lose weight faster with less frequent side effects than competing FDA-approved drugs. But the opportunity for Eli Lilly is expanding its approved indications for the drug to beyond obesity, which could lead to increased insurance coverage for the drug.

“We acknowledge there’s wood to chop on access/manufacturing capacity, but we’d argue our forecasts are still conservative, as by 2030, we assume <7% of US adults will be on a GLP-1 for obesity (includes competitors),” Meacham said.

Next-generation weight loss drugs from Eli Lilly, if approved, could add an additional $20 billion to the company’s revenue by 2030, according to the note, bringing its total weight-loss class of drugs to more than $80 billion of sales.

The company is developing an oral version of its GLP-1 drugs, as opposed to the current injection form of the drug, as well as a GGG agonist, which has shown promise in helping patients lose weight without significant muscle loss.

Finally, Meacham noted that Eli Lilly has a portfolio and pipeline of drugs aside from its weight-loss franchise that, while much smaller than the projected growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound, should help add diversification to its business.

“Given the robust P&L impact of Lilly’s GLP-1 portfolio, its neuroscience, oncology, and I&I segments seem less impactful. That said, these other segments and diversification + optionality and for oncology / I&I, we see an impressive +16% 5-year CAGR,” Meacham said.

I&I refers to Eli Lilly’s immunology and inflammation drugs.

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