Tesla CEO Elon Musk is no fan of unions, but at the moment he might be quietly cheering on Shawn Fain. The United Auto Workers leader shows no signs of backing down from Detroit’s Big 3 automakers as he pushes “audacious” contract demands. If no deal is struck, about 146,000 UAW workers will likely go on strike on Friday.
That would help Tesla at a time when traditional automakers are pushing more aggressively into electric vehicles.
“If a strike happens then ultimately production and the EV roadmap could be pushed out into 2024 and delays would be on the horizon at this crucial period for GM, Ford, and Stellantis,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a research note. Tesla is well situated to benefit from any work stoppage at its rivals, he added.
“I think this is going to be the most severe and the most dramatic strike in 50 years,” Erik Gordon, a business professor at the University of Michigan, told WNEM. Barclays analyst Dan Levy, meanwhile, called a strike “highly likely.”
In addition to slowing down the Detroit automakers, a strike would hurt their bottom lines. One against GM, Ford, and Stellantis lasting 10 days would cost them nearly a billion dollars, according to the Anderson Economic Group.
While the Detroit automakers had nearly 2 million vehicles on hand at the end of July, “a work stoppage of three weeks or more would quickly drain the excess supply, raising vehicle prices and pushing more sales to non-union brands,” analyst Sam Fiorani told the Associated Press.
One of those brands, of course, is Tesla.
Musk has taken a tough stance against organized labor. Tesla workers earn about $45 an hour in wages and benefits, whereas UAW-represented employees at the Detroit Three make about $64 to $67 an hour, according to Reuters. The gap gives Tesla a competitive advantage, as do various manufacturing strategies and not having to share profits with dealers.
In March, a three-judge panel ruled that Musk had unlawfully threatened workers with the loss of stock options if they chose to be represented by a union. In July, a federal appeals court said it would reconsider the ruling.
At the heart of the matter was a 2018 tweet in which Musk wrote: “Nothing stopping Tesla team at our car plant from voting union. Could do so tmrw if they wanted. But why pay union dues and give up stock options for nothing? Our safety record is 2X better than when plant was UAW & everybody already gets healthcare.”
In February, workers at a Tesla factory in Buffalo were fired shortly after launching union organizing efforts. Workers United said the terminations were an illegal form of retaliation. Tesla denied this, writing on its blog it had decided to fire the workers beforehand over poor performance.
Tesla has pressured other automakers this year with dramatic price cuts, often angering its own customers who bought vehicles at higher prices weeks or days before the cuts—or who were about to sell a used Tesla that suddenly lost value.
Also worrying Detroit’s big automakers are EV rivals emerging in China and exporting to Europe and elsewhere—though not yet to America. “The Chinese are going to be the powerhouse,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said at a finance event in May.
Ford executive chairman Bill Ford Jr. added in June, “They are not here, but they will come here…and we need to be ready.”
Tesla might be more ready than its Detroit rivals—and no strike looms on its horizon.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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